Kotsovolos

To address these challenges, Kotsovolos implemented ToolsGroup's supply chain planning suite, in partnership with local ToolsGroup partner THellas, to overhaul its demand forecasting, replenishment, and inventory optimization processes. The solution now serves as the intelligent core of Kotsovolos's planning operations, with the vast majority of planning activities executed within ToolsGroup's solution and minimal reliance on spreadsheets.

At the heart of the solution is probabilistic forecasting, which models demand as a range of possible outcomes rather than a single forecast. This probabilistic planning approach allows Kotsovolos to explicitly account for uncertainty and variability when setting inventory targets and generating replenishment plans, improving service levels while controlling inventory risk.

The platform automatically ingests daily data from SAP and other enterprise sources, including store-level sales, inventory positions, product master data, promotions, and customer orders. Using probabilistic forecasting at the item-store level, and incorporating the commercial team's input on short-term and medium-term events pertaining to the sales forecast, the system dynamically optimizes inventory targets to meet service-level objectives while generating daily replenishment recommendations and supplier order proposals with up to 180 days of forward visibility.

Key capabilities include:

• Automated daily data ingestion from SAP and connected systems
• Probabilistic forecasting at item-store level
• Dynamic inventory target optimization
• Daily replenishment and supplier order proposals
• Assortment and planogram rule enforcement
• Integration of digital shelf and store "digital twin" signals to prevent duplicate or incorrect replenishment

Implementation approach

A critical focus of the implementation was automating store replenishment for Major Domestic Appliances (MDA), a category characterized by high-value, bulky products, and strict assortment rules. ToolsGroup's advanced modelling enforces each store's approved product mix and planogram rules as defined by Kotsovolos's commercial team, ensuring that only the correct products and quantities are replenished. Apart from the MDA category, ToolsGroup's solution helps Kotsovolos manage day-to-day planning for nine product categories, including Small Domestic Appliances, Computing and Telecoms, each with their unique demand and supply characteristics.

Each night, the system evaluates on-shelf conditions using system data and digital store representations. When preferred items are unavailable, the solution recommends suitable alternatives to avoid empty shelves and automatically switches back to the preferred model when stock is restored. Integration with electronic shelf labels and store digital twin data enables the system to detect incorrect shelf usage and halt unnecessary replenishment, eliminating a common source of duplicate shipments.

This exception-driven planning approach allows planners to focus on root cause analysis and cross-functional decision-making rather than manual calculations, improving both efficiency and planning quality.

Projects like this are a journey. Working closely with Kotsovolos, we progressively refined models, data, and ways of working as the business evolved. This collaborative approach, combined with a strong focus on governance and continuous improvement, enabled the team to deliver sustained progress in on-shelf availability and replenishment effectiveness.

Stathis Nikolakopoulos, Managing Director, THellas